After looking over some data, I have several things to talk about regarding today's potential severe weather. There is a decent instability, and strong vertical wind shear. This means potential for tornadoes. The NWS has hinted that some of these could be long-tracked, if they develop. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will start to effect us within a few hours, but the biggest severe weather threat looks to be late afternoon through the evening. Damaging winds and tornadoes are the biggest threat today, although I won't rule out some hail.
As we move into the evening hours, look for a aquall line to develop, and move across the area. This line of thunderstorms could have embedded supercells, and will probably bow out in some spots. We will also see locally heavy rainfall between 1 to 3 inches, something that could potentially create flash flooding.
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Severe weather is possible across Central Florida tomorrow.
A low pressure system is developing in the Gulf of Mexico, and will track through South Georgia tomorrow and tomorrow night. The Storm Prediction Center has Florida in a Slight Risk area for severe weather. Deep moisture levels and strong upper level winds will combine with decent atmospheric instability to create conditions that will be conducive for a squall line to develop ahead of the cold front. The timeline for strongest storms looks to be late afternoon going into the evening, and overnight for some locations. The main threat tomorrow will be damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes in the stronger parts of the storm. Will update in the morning to reflect any changes, and to highlight any watches/warnings.
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