Slow Start To Atlantic Hurricane Season 2010 & Climatology Of Hurricanes

I don't know how much all of you have been watching the Atlantic this year. For all I know, you don't care at all. Regardless of whether or not you care, almost all of the major meteorological agencies and companies (NOAA, Accuweather, Dr. Gray at Colorado State, etc.) are forecasting a major hurricane season this year in the Atlantic. After you see NOAA's "updated" forecast below (with a decrease in the number of storms by three), you'll realize just what I'm talking about when I say we've had a slow start.

NOAA's updated forecast, including Alex, Bonnie, and Colin: 14 to 20 Named Storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including: 8 to 12 Hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which: 4 to 6 could be Major Hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)


So far, we have had one hurricane (Alex), two tropical storms (Bonnie and Colin), and two depressions (#2 and #5, the remnants of which might re-enter the Gulf of Mexico in the next few days and possibly develop into a tropical storm). Being that we are having record SST (sea surface temperature) measurements in both the Atlantic and Gulf, as well as low wind shear that is partly because of La Nina developing in the Pacific (not to mention comparisons to the 2005 hurricane season, when we had a record 28 named storms), we should be far into the list of hurricanes, right?

Not necessarily, although I won't try to explain the complexities of hurricane formation, as that is not at my current level of knowledge.

What I will do is talk about the climatology of hurricane formation, and when we are most likely to see an increase in their formation. First, the definition of the word "climate": Climate is the weather over a period of time. NOAA considers a time frame of 30 years to be a valid starting point for climate.

When talking about hurricane climatology, meteorologists tend to concentrate on the period of 1950-present. 1950 was when we started to make advancements in weather forecasting, although the most advancement started in the 1970s (mostly after the 1974 tornado "Super Outbreak", as the National Weather Service realized they were highly unprepared for such an event).

The Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1st, and ends November 30th. We generally don't see any activity in June, with an average of one storm every two years in July. August is when the season starts to ramp up, as SST gets higher and other factors come into play. September is actually the busiest month for formation, usually peaking around September 10th, after which activity tends to wind down, although we have a small jump in mid-October. After that, all activity pretty much stops. However, we have had a few storms in November, as we did in 2005.

Here is the information I have just given you in an image, and here is a map of the hurricanes to make landfall in the U.S. since 1950 (as of 2009). As a side note, we have had 85 hurricanes that have directly affected Florida since 1990.